GDMFX - Daily News

[GDMFX]

Forex News: US fundamental events steal the headlines once again

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Dollar strengthened against the Euro throughout yesterday’s trading session as the US New Home Sales posted a much better than anticipated value, increasing optimism that Fed will continue to taper the monetary stimulus.



Technical Outlook

The decisive break of 1.3710 to the down side signifies a major victory for the bears and maybe more important than that, it suggests that the ranging period is over. A re-test from below is possible, especially considering the fact that the Relative Strength Index is approaching an oversold condition but for now the control belongs to the bears and we are likely to see moves lower.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Consumer Price Index is released but no change is anticipated from the current 1.3%. This is the main gauge of inflation and a higher value usually strengthens the Euro because the German economy is the backbone of the Euro Zone. The US Durable Goods Orders are released at 1:30 pm GMT and a big change is expected from the previous -4.2% to -1.6%. More orders for durable goods suggest that manufacturers will increase their activity to satisfy demand and normally this strengthens the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT Fed Chairwoman Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The focus will be on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and after reading a prepared statement, Janet Yellen will answer questions asked by the Committee members. This second part is likely to generate the most volatility and we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The Gross Domestic Product of the United Kingdom surprisingly dropped yesterday to 2.7% from the previous 2.8%, weakening the Pound and allowing moves lower.



Technical Outlook

Although UK data was disappointing and US data better than anticipated, the pair didn’t travel a huge distance to the south so we cannot consider the bears to be in control. However, 1.6665 support was broken yesterday and if a re-test generates a move lower which will break 1.6600 support, the bias changes to bearish. Of course, 1.6600 may be broken even without a re-test of 1.6665 and moves to the north are not out of the question either.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news releases for today so the main focus will be on the US events and on the technical aspect.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Dollar strength affected by the US Gross Domestic Product

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was characterized by Euro weakness mainly due to the lower than anticipated German CPI but once disappointing US data came out, the pair climbed to touch the previously broken level of 1.3710.



Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair is testing from below the broken level of 1.3710 and if this test results in a bounce lower, it means that we are dealing with previous support turned resistance. This fact would indicate that bears are indeed in control of the pair’s short to medium term movement and we are likely to see a break of yesterday’s lowest point (1.3643). Otherwise, the next resistance is located at 1.3770 and might be the pair’s next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer price Index Estimate is released, with no change anticipated from the current 0.7%. Higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the European economy and have the potential to take the pair higher. However, the most important event of the day is the release of the US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The anticipated value is 2.6%, a decrease from the previous 3.2%; lower numbers suggest an economic contraction and are perceived as detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session which started with the bears being in control but finished higher, above 1.6665. Overall it was a difficult day for trading on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range, moving above and below 1.6665 and we maintain our neutral bias until a clear move occurs. For the moment the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. Until the pair breaks decisively either one of them, the ranging movement will continue.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak today at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt. The event is scheduled at 3:30 pm GMT and is likely to create volatility, depending on the Governor’s attitude and matters discussed. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Mario Draghi testifies – waiting for the market’s reaction

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the bulls scored the biggest victory of last week by taking the pair close to the major resistance located at 1.3830 on the back of a better than anticipated European CPI and a disappointing US Gross Domestic Product.



Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, a crucial resistance sits in front of rising prices and we have already seen signs of rejection on a four hour chart. The Relative Strength Index is indicating an overbought market and it’s likely for the pair to pull back to 1.3770 before further advances to the upside can be made. The technical side of the market will be somewhat secondary and all eyes will be on Mario Draghi’s testimony.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The president will speak before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament and we expect a lot of strong moves to occur at the time, depending on his attitude. Whipsaws and sharp reversals are a distinct possibility so we recommend caution if trading during the testimony. The US Manufacturing PMI is released at 3:00 pm GMT with an expected increase from the previous 51.3 to 52.3, a fact which would strengthen the greenback if it were to come true or if even higher numbers will be posted.


GBP/USD

The worse than expected US Gross Domestic Product allowed the pair to climb higher during Friday’s trading session. Price action was rather choppy on the lower time frames but the day was bullish nonetheless.



Technical Outlook

As we mentioned last week, we are neutral on the pair until a clear break of either support (1.6600) or resistance (1.6750) occurs. The bulls had a good run Friday but resistance is still holding and a bounce lower is very possible. If this occurs, the first level of importance to the down side is 1.6665; on the other hand, a break of resistance would have to be confirmed by a re-test unless the move up is a very strong one.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT and a small increase is anticipated from the previous 56.7 to 56.9. Since this is a leading indicator of economic health focused on the manufacturing sector, better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The US Manufacturing PMI released later in the day will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: All eyes on the US Non Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD

Forex News: The European Central Bank kept the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% but the single currency strengthened substantially on the back of comments made by Mario Draghi who suggested that no additional monetary stimulus is necessary, considering the current state of the economy.



Technical Outlook

The recent rally will probably continue after a brief retracement lower which is likely to find support around the freshly broken level of 1.3830. The four hour Relative Strength Index is signaling an overbought condition of the market, a fact which more often than not results in a bearish move. Although the outlook is bullish, almost anything is possible, especially if today’s US employment report shows a surprising value.

Fundamental Outlook

Without a doubt the US Non Farm Employment Change report is the day’s headline as it has a tremendous impact on the market each time it is released. The jobs situation is a concerning factor for the American economy and today’s report is considered the main gauge of this situation. Higher values suggest that more people are employed and also that consumer spending may increase in the future, a beneficial fact for the greenback. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the estimated figure is 151K, an increase from the previous 113K.


GBP/USD

Bank of England decided to make no adjustments to the Interest Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility but the pair moved to the north after some choppy price action experienced at the time of the interest rate release.



Technical Outlook

The resistance located at 1.6750 is finally broken after a long period of indecision. However, the break is not extremely strong so we are waiting for a re-test of the level and a bounce higher in order to consider this break a real one. The US Dollar will be highly influenced today by the US Non Farm Payrolls and the technical aspect of the market will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases for the day and market participants will be mainly focused on the US events. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend. Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Bears fight back – US Dollar rebounds

EUR/USD

Forex News: The final day of the week that just ended was heavily influenced by the US Non Farm Employment report which exceeded expectations and strengthened the greenback as a result. Overall, the day was characterized by a sharp reversal which made trend following strategies almost impossible to trade successfully.



Technical Outlook

Friday’s move lower is considered a retracement in an uptrend, with the main bias being bullish. An important resistance was broken last week, a fact which solidifies the control of the bulls but signs of weakness are present in the market: the Relative Strength Index is already moving down from overbought territory and the latest daily candle is a pin (which indicates rejection). Moves below 1.3830 may be indicative of increased bearish pressure and a break of Friday’s high located at 1.3914 would indicate trend continuation.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro Group meetings take place today in Brussels and are a potential market mover, considering the fact that important officials will be present (ECB President, Euro Group President and finance ministers from the member states). Although the meetings are closed to the press, participants often talk to journalists, possibly creating volatility, depending on the matters discussed.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair continued its choppy price action, moving above and below the level of 1.6750 before dropping on the back of good US employment data which reinforced the US Dollar.



Technical Outlook

The recent move south is backed by fundamental events and the strength of the Pound seems to fade away as we saw the bulls make several failed attempts to break resistance. Our bias remains neutral in anticipation of a clear breakout but there are increased chances of an encounter with the first minor support level located at 1.6650.

Fundamental Outlook

Other than the Euro Group meetings, there are no notable events scheduled today and we anticipate slow trading if no major developments take place in Brussels.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Mark Carney’s testimony steals the headlines

EUR/USD

Forex News: The week started with ranging price action and the pair lacked clear direction. No major economic indicators were released, contributing to the ranging price action and slow movement.



Technical Outlook

As mentioned, yesterday price was confined in a narrow range but this fact makes us believe that today we will see stronger moves. The pair is in an uptrend but the fact that buyers failed to take price higher may suggest that lower moves will follow; if this is the case, 1.3830 is the next potential support and target of the day. Keep in mind that bulls are still in control of the pair and only a break of support would mean that bears are really starting to shift the power in their favor.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and the US Dollar have a slow day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases and we consider the technical aspect to be the main market mover.


GBP/USD

The sellers managed to seize control of the pair yesterday and took price below the support located at 1.6650. Overall we had a day without sharp reversals and a steady trend was in place on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, the pair broke 1.6650 support and is now trading below it. Short term control belongs to the bears but the break is not a clear one and we still consider the picture to be unclear until a break of 1.6600 occurs. Although moves above 1.6650 are possible, we slightly favor the short side but we acknowledge the fact that today’s important fundamental events may overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important event of the day is Mark Carney’s testimony before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee with the main focus being the economic outlook and the inflation situation. During the few hours of the hearings, strong and even irregular movement may be experienced, depending on the matters discussed. The hearings start at 09:30 am GMT and at the same time the UK Manufacturing Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from 1.5% to 3.3%. Better than anticipated values for this indicator are usually beneficial for the Pound and have the potential to take the pair higher.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Markets governed by indecision. Strong moves still expected

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a rather slow day, characterized by a sharp reversal after a touch of 1.3830 support zone. The fundamental scene was quiet, a fact which contributed to the pair’s lack of strong movement and narrow range.



Technical Outlook

An important level was barely touched yesterday but price showed an almost immediate reaction, bouncing higher for about 40 pips. This is without a doubt a bullish sign but lately the pair seems to lack momentum and the buyers’ strength is slowly fading away. On the other hand, even if our anticipated target of 1.3830 was almost reached, we didn’t see clear bearish pressure. All this goes to show that the market is governed by indecision and the next strong move will probably determine the short term bias. Support still sits at 1.3830 while the highest price reached this year (1.3914) will probably act as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Industrial Production is announced, with an anticipated increase from the previous 0.5% to 1.9%. Such a change would be beneficial for the Euro and we might see higher prices as this is a leading indicator of economic health. The US has a slow day ahead and no major indicators are released.


GBP/USD

Although we expected Mark Carney’s testimony to have a higher impact on the market, the pair moved between support and resistance for the entire day and no major developments took place.



Technical Outlook

For a long time the pair has been trading between the support located at 1.6600 and the resistance located at 1.6750; a clear break of either level would most likely determine the pair’s next medium term direction so we can say that we are a crossroad now: if 1.6600 will be broken today, we are likely to see and extended move lower but a bounce higher off this level would indicate that the ranging period is not over yet.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases and this makes the technical aspect the most influential factor of the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: US Retail Sales – the incentive for a break of Support or Resistance

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a bullish trading session yesterday, with price moving in one direction for almost the entire day. The better than expected value of the Euro Zone Industrial Production greatly contributed to this upward movement by strengthening the Euro.



Technical Outlook

The pair made an attempt to break this year’s high located at 1.3914 and price is now in close vicinity of this level but there are no clear hints of a breakout or of a bounce lower. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is very close to the 70 level, a fact which indicates an overbought condition of the market and price is printing a double top pattern which usually indicates that lower moves are anticipated. The main levels to watch are 1.3914 as resistance and 1.3830 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales represent a hefty part of the entire US consumer spending and are considered a market mover which can drastically affect the pair’s behavior. For today’s release an increase is anticipated from the previous value of -0.4% to 0.2% and usually better than expected numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

For a long time we expected a break of either support or resistance and yesterday the pair moved briefly below 1.6600. However the break could not be sustained by the bears and price moved quickly to the upside.



Technical Outlook

The fact that yesterday price tried to break the important support located at 1.6600 but failed and quickly returned above it indicates that bears are not ready yet to take control of the pair. To the upside, the first level of interest remains 1.6650 while 1.6600 is still support which could generate a bounce higher if it’s not broken today. We remain neutral until a clear break occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic indicator releases so we consider the US event to be the main market mover of the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex New: Support levels threatened again

EUR/USD

Forex New: The pair had a wild day yesterday, characterized by Euro Zone optimism which took price higher but was soon followed by a sharp reversal triggered partly by a better than expected value of the US Retail Sales.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday price printed a new high at 1.3965 but the Dollar strengthened after the US data came out and 1.3914 (previous high) was broken to the down side. The latest fall opens the door for a break of 1.3830 support, a fact which would represent a major victory for the bears. Note that the drop didn’t occur immediately after the release of the US Retail Sales so technical reasons, not only fundamental were responsible for it, a fact which makes us believe that high prices were hard to sustain, the bullish trend was overextended and the market was in need of a strong move to the south which may turn into a full scale reversal.

Fundamental Outlook

At 07:00 am GMT the German Final Consumer Price Index is released and anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.2%. The indicator is Germany’s main inflation gauge but it is usually overshadowed by the Preliminary version which is released about 15 days earlier; however, higher values have the potential to strengthen the Euro and take the pair higher. Later in the day, at 1:55 pm GMT, the US Consumer Confidence is released and expected to increase from the previous 81.2 to 81.9; higher levels of consumer confidence are indicative of future increases in consumer spending which is vital for the economy so US Dollar strength is anticipated if higher values will be posted.


GBP/USD

The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bulls on the back of speculation that Bank of England will raise the Interest Rate sooner than estimated but the day finished with a stronger US Dollar and a bearish move which nullified the Pound’s previous gains.



Technical Outlook

The recent encounter with the support located at 1.6600 resulted in a bounce higher which broke 1.6650 decisively to the upside; however, the rally was sharply reversed and price moved lower, in close vicinity to 1.6600. All this goes to show that indecision still rules the pair but the bears can make a decisive move today if they manage to break 1.6600 support and finish the week below it. We slightly favor this scenario and anticipate a break of 1.6600 but we acknowledge the fact that bulls still have underlying strength and may take the pair north.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom releases the Trade Balance today at 09:30 am GMT; the indicator shows the difference between imported and exported goods and higher readings are beneficial for the Pound. Today’s expected value is -8.7B while the previous was -7.7B but the indicator is not considered a market mover and the impact is usually mild. The US Confidence indicator will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement as well.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex Technical Analysis: Bearish pressure is building up. Fundamentals hold center-stage

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Trading was affected last week by growing tensions regarding the Ukraine crisis which generated choppy price action and a lot of reversals. US economic data was mixed and contributed to the pair’s lack of clear direction.



Technical Outlook

The fact that bulls managed to keep price above 1.3830 for an entire week and also printed a new high at 1.3965, shows that the uptrend is still not exhausted. If this new high will be broken again this week, the next level of interest to the upside is the psychological resistance located at 1.4000 which is also a big round number and this kind of levels tend to have great importance for price action. Although the pair is in an uptrend, a move below 1.3830 would be proof of bear-strength and would make 1.3710 the next target of the week.

Fundamental Outlook

The first day of the week brings us the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is the most important gauge of inflation but it tends to have a limited impact on the pair because the German CPI (which accounts for the major part of European inflation) was already released. Tuesday the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the main European event while the US will release the Consumer Price Index which, as mentioned before, has high inflationary implications.

Wednesday has the potential to be the most volatile day of the week and all eyes will be on the US for the release of the Interest Rate, FOMC’s Economic Projections and Fed Chairman Yellen’s Press Conference. The press conference is likely to be a huge market mover, especially in its second part when Janet Yellen will answer audience questions. The Fed will also decide whether they will further adjust the monetary stimulus program or not, an issue which has been a top concern of market participants and is likely to generate tremendous volatility.

Thursday the US Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are released, offering insights into the situation of the housing market and the progress of the manufacturing sector. The last important event of the week comes out Friday in the form of the Euro Zone Trade Balance which shows the difference between imported and exported goods. The impact of this indicator is not always high, especially if the actual number is close to the forecast.


GBP/USD

The beginning of last week was characterized by a strong move lower which took the pair close to 1.6600 support but for the rest of the week, the bears struggled without success to continue the move and break the mentioned level.



Technical Outlook

The balance of power starts to shift in favor of the bears although the pair is still in a range defined by 1.6750 resistance and 1.6600 support. Important to note is the fact that last week price moved up after a touch of 1.6600 but the bears quickly took it back down, resulting in a Daily pin candle (Thursday). Pin bars usually indicate rejection and in this particular case, a move south is expected, but the fundamental aspect of the week will have an important role and may change this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak Tuesday in London at the Annual Mais Lecture. His speeches are potential market movers and the market often reacts to his attitude or to clues about future interest rates. Wednesday the Band of England will make public the Minutes of their latest Meeting; the Claimant Count Change which is released the same day will offer insights into the British jobs situation. These are the main events for the Pound but the pair will be directly affected by the US data released throughout the week.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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