GDMFX - Daily News

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Price action driven by fundamental factors

EUR/USD
Forex News: After piercing through the resistance located at 1.3710, the pair bounced back Friday, creating a sharp reversal pattern which was rather difficult to trade.



Technical Outlook
At the moment the pair is confined between 1.3650 and 1.3710 and we expect it to remain within these two levels if the economic indicators released today will not show surprising numbers. If the bulls make another attempt to break 1.3710 but don’t succeed, it would suggest that momentum is starting to fade away and moves lower are probable.

Fundamental Outlook
The German Ifo Business Climate is released today at 09:00 am GMT with an anticipated increase from the previous 109.5 to 110.2. The indicator is a survey based on the opinions of about 7,000 German businesses regarding the current and 6-month outlook and is considered a leading indicator of economic health. Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the US New Home Sales numbers come out, showing how the US housing market performs. An increase in the number of houses sold suggests a thriving economy and can potentially strengthen the US Dollar. The anticipated number is 457K while the previous was 464K.


GBP/USD
The pair dropped sharply Friday after moving to the upside for the entire last week and the trading session was almost completely controlled by sellers who took price almost 200 pips lower.



Technical Outlook
Although the pair climbed strongly during the last period, Friday’s sharp drop is a potential sign of reversal. The break above the resistance located at 1.6600 was a false one as price soon returned below it and now the short term uptrend is weakened, making 1.6440 a level to watch. A touch of this level may result in a bounce higher, signaling that Pound is still strong and the uptrend may resume.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major news releases for today so price action will be influenced by the US event mentioned above and by technical factors.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: UK’s Gross Domestic Product – a huge event for the Pound

EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair remained between support and resistance yesterday and no major moves took place although the German Ifo Business Climate was better than anticipated and the US New Home Sales posted lower numbers.



Technical Outlook
Today we anticipate a break of either the support located at 1.3650 or the resistance located at 1.3710 but the direction will be highly dependent on the economic data which will be announced by the United States. The latest momentum belongs to the bulls but 1.3710 couldn’t be broken immediately after the initial impulse so the strength of the buyers is somewhat reduced.

Fundamental Outlook
AT 1:30 pm GMT the US Durable Goods Orders are announced and their value is expected to decrease to 1.9% from the previous 3.4%. Goods with a life expectancy of at least three years are considered “durable” and usually these types of goods require a larger investment from the part of the buyer and are purchased when the economy is expanding. Better than expected values have the potential to strengthen the US Dollar. The second important event of the day is the release of the US Consumer Confidence scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to increase slightly from 78.1 to 78.3. This is a leading indicator of consumer spending and usually strengthens the greenback if better results are posted.


GBP/USD
The Pound had a bullish day yesterday, strengthening considerably during yesterday’s trading session but 1.6600 resistance was not broken so the uptrend is not resumed.



Technical Outlook
Today’s price action will be heavily influenced by fundamental factors and the direction will be decided by the value of the UK Gross Domestic Product. The levels to watch for are 1.6600 as resistance and 1.6440 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
The most anticipated event of the day is the release of United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 09:30 am GMT. The GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge and can strengthen the currency substantially if it shows good results. Today’s release is has an added importance because a big increase is anticipated, from the previous 1.9% to 2.8%, a fact which would take the pair higher if it comes true.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: FOMC Statement – the day’s market mover

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session started on a bearish note and support appeared to be broken but a worse than anticipated value of the US Durable Goods Orders weakened the US Dollar and created a sharp reversal.



Technical Outlook
The pair is still trading between 1.3650 support and 1.3710 resistance but yesterday’s failed attempt at breaking support may result in a bounce higher for another encounter with resistance and a potential continuation of last week’s bullish impulse. The FOMC statement is the day’s market mover and we might experience ranging price action, without a clear direction until the time of its release.

Fundamental Outlook
The FOMC Statement is the most important event of the day and comes out late at 7:00 pm GMT, together with the Federal Funds Rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.25%. The Statement will contain important insights about the reasons which stood behind the rate vote and also an economic outlook which may offer hints about future rates. Discussions about the monetary stimulus program will most likely generate very strong movement in the market so we recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product met expectations yesterday, coming out with a value of 2.8% but the event created very difficult to trade price action, reversing the direction several times in a short while.



Technical Outlook
The strong resistance created at 1.6600 was touched yesterday but price was pushed lower signifying that the power of the bulls is starting to fade. However, we are still in a medium-term uptrend so moves to the upside are very possible. We favor slightly the down side but acknowledge the fact that price action today will be heavily influenced by the FOMC Statement.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:15 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the Scottish Council for Development and Industry luncheon in Edinburgh; almost all his public speeches generate volatility in the market, depending on the matters discussed so we recommend caution at the time of the event. Of course the FOMC Statement will strongly affect the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Support levels ahead – retracements anticipated

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the German Consumer Price Index showed a decrease to 1.3% from the previous 1.4% and this fact, combined with the Fed decision to reduce the QE value generated a totally bearish day for the pair.



Technical Outlook
Although we anticipated a move lower and a touch of 1.3550 support, we didn’t expect this move to be so quick and the entire distance to be traveled in a single day. At the moment price is testing 1.3550 support but the Relative Strength Index is showing an oversold condition on an hourly chart as well as on a four hour chart and we believe that a retracement is in order before any advances to the down side can be made. Of course, a decisive break of support will probably trigger additional bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook
The Consumer Price Index for the entire Euro Zone will be released today at 10:00 am GMT and is anticipated to increase from the current 0.8% to 0.9%, a fact which would strengthen the Euro. However, because the German CPI was released a day before, today’s event may have a limited impact, especially if the actual value will not be a surprising one.

GBP/USD
The effects of the US monetary stimulus reduction were seen throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair dropped on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Overall it was a day with clear direction and no surprising whipsaws or reversals.



Technical Outlook
Yesterday’s bearish impulse brought the pair close to the support located at 1.6440 but a break didn’t occur and the bearish momentum faded away. If today the pair will touch this support once again without breaking it, we anticipate moves higher, especially if the Relative Strength Index will cross the oversold level. A break of 1.6440 to the down side would mean an important victory for the bears and may generate an extended move south.

Fundamental Outlook
The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic indicator releases for today so price action will be probably driven by the technical aspect of the market.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Important developments expected for both pairs

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a mixed trading session, mostly because no major economic indicators were released. Price moved slowly to the down side but the previous low was not broken so the US Dollar didn’t make significant advances against its counterpart.



Technical Outlook
We maintain our bearish stance and anticipate a move lower towards the important support located at 1.3400. The resistance at 1.3550 was still not touched so price can move into that zone before dropping and a lot will depend on the economic indicators released today.

Fundamental Outlook
At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Retail Sales are released and anticipated to change from the previous 1.4% to -0.7%; such a decrease would weaken the Euro since sales made at a retail level are crucial for economy and represent the major part of consumer spending. Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. will release the Non Farm Employment Change, providing an early situation of the jobs market in the United States. A decrease is anticipated from the previous 238K to 191K but this indicator is released by a private company and has a much milder impact than the Government situation which will be released 2 days later.

GBP/USD
The pair dropped in close vicinity of the support located at 1.6250 but a better than expected value of the British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index strengthened the Pound and drove the pair higher.



Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is still near the 30 level which suggests an oversold condition and potential moves north, but price is trading below 1.6315 which may act as resistance. Also, the major support located at 1.6250 is close to the current price and may reject it higher if touched, so the next direction is still uncertain and will probably be decided by today’s fundamental events.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services PMI is released today at 09:30 am GMT with an anticipated increase from the previous 58.8 to 59.1. This survey is based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector, is a leading indicator of economic health and has the potential to strengthen the Pound if better than expected numbers are posted. The US events will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Two Interest Rates – a boost of volatility

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday’s session was very difficult to trade and was characterized by a lot of sharp reversals, especially on the lower time frames. The Euro Zone Retail Sales came out worse than anticipated but so did the ADP Non Farm Employment report and these facts generated quick changes of direction.



Technical Outlook
The resistance located at 1.3550 was touched yesterday and price is showing rejection on a four hour chart (long upper wick of the candle that touched resistance). From a strictly technical point of view, we anticipate a drop towards 1.3400 but today the ECB Press Conference is held and the market will move strongly depending on Mario Draghi’s attitude, making the technical aspect somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook
Without a doubt the most important event of the day is the ECB Press Conference which takes place at 1:30 pm GMT. Although the ECB will announce the Interest Rate (not expected to change from the current 0.25%) at 12:45 pm GMT, this event will be overshadowed by Mario Draghi’s speech at the conference. He will also answer audience questions and his answers will be analyzed in detail by traders around the world, trying to anticipate the next direction, a fact which will generate sudden moves and possible sharp reversals. We recommend caution if trading during the press conference.


GBP/USD
The British Services PMI came out yesterday with a worse than anticipated value, making the pair drop to touch the support located at 1.6250. However, later in the day, disappointing US data took price higher again.



Technical Outlook
Similar to our EUR/USD outlook, we consider that price is still aiming for a move lower but the day’s fundamental events may overthrow this scenario. The resistance located at 1.6315 is holding so far but the same is true for the 1.6250. A breakout is imminent but the direction will be decided by fundamental factors.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but the event usually creates volatility even if no change occurs. At the same time the Asset Purchase Facility value is released; this represents the amount of money the Bank of England can use to purchase open market assets with the purpose of stabilizing the currency. The current value of 375B is not expected to change but a decrease is often considered beneficial for the currency and can drive the pair higher.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

The Forex Market: Fed and BoE Meeting Minutes – the day’s headlines

EUR/USD

The Forex Market: Despite a worse than expected value of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, the pair climbed for almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session and resistance was broken decisively.



Technical Outlook

The decisive break of 1.3710 resistance confirms the strength of the bulls and the fact that the pair is in trading in an uptrend. This makes 1.3830 the next major resistance and target but we must note the fact that the Relative Strength Index surpassed the 70 level, thus indicating an overbought condition of the market. Of course, this condition doesn’t mean that a retracement will occur right away but further advances may be more difficult. The broken resistance located at 1.3710 is likely to turn into support if price will reach it again.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Producer Price Index is released today at 1:30 pm GMT; the indicator shows the change in the price charged by producers for their goods and services and usually higher values strengthen the US Dollar due to inflationary implications (eventually a higher price charged by producers will be passed on to the consumer). For today’s release, analysts expect a decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.2%.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT, the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, containing details about the reasons which influenced the Rate decision. Volatility will most likely be present at the time of the release.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index posted a surprising decrease to 1.9% from the anticipated 2.0%, a fact which weakened the Pound against its counterpart and allowed the pair to move lower.



Technical Outlook

The pair touched support at 1.6665 and now looks prepared for another bullish push towards 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition and allows moves higher but a fall below 1.6600 would shift the balance of power in favor of the bears. Today’s price action will be highly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom releases the Claimant Count Change at 09:30 am GMT with an expected increase from the previous -24.0K to -18.3K, a fact which would be detrimental for the Pound since the indicator shows the change in the number of unemployed people claiming social benefits. At the same time the Bank of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting, which will contain a breakdown of the members’ votes regarding the interest rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair as well.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Dollar strength affected by the US Gross Domestic Product

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was characterized by Euro weakness mainly due to the lower than anticipated German CPI but once disappointing US data came out, the pair climbed to touch the previously broken level of 1.3710.



Technical Outlook

At the moment the pair is testing from below the broken level of 1.3710 and if this test results in a bounce lower, it means that we are dealing with previous support turned resistance. This fact would indicate that bears are indeed in control of the pair’s short to medium term movement and we are likely to see a break of yesterday’s lowest point (1.3643). Otherwise, the next resistance is located at 1.3770 and might be the pair’s next target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Euro Zone Consumer price Index Estimate is released, with no change anticipated from the current 0.7%. Higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the European economy and have the potential to take the pair higher. However, the most important event of the day is the release of the US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The anticipated value is 2.6%, a decrease from the previous 3.2%; lower numbers suggest an economic contraction and are perceived as detrimental for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session which started with the bears being in control but finished higher, above 1.6665. Overall it was a difficult day for trading on the lower time frames.



Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range, moving above and below 1.6665 and we maintain our neutral bias until a clear move occurs. For the moment the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6600 as support. Until the pair breaks decisively either one of them, the ranging movement will continue.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak today at the Symposium on Financial Stability and the Role of Central Bankers, in Frankfurt. The event is scheduled at 3:30 pm GMT and is likely to create volatility, depending on the Governor’s attitude and matters discussed. Of course, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: ECB SURPRISES THE MARKET WITH ANOTHER RATE CUT. FOCUS SHIFTS ON NON FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB unexpectedly decided to cut the interest rate to 0.05% (previously 0.15%) and Mario Draghi announced that a form of Quantitative Easing will be introduced in order to stimulate the economy. He also mentioned that other measures might be implemented if needed.



Technical Outlook

The surprise offered by the ECB drastically weakened the Euro and the effect was a massive drop of almost 200 pips. The selloff broke 1.3100 and brought the pair into the psychological support at 1.3000, solidifying the control of the bears and renewing the downtrend. Today’s direction will be heavily affected by the US Non Farm Payrolls but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a small bounce followed by a trend continuation.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event will be the release of the Non Farm Payrolls which is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT; the expected number is 226K, an increase from last month’s 209K. Higher numbers show that more jobs were created and usually this strengthens the greenback because employment is closely correlated with consumer spending which in turn is a major part of the economy. The NFP release is known to be a huge market mover thus caution is recommended if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England left the rate unchanged and the event didn’t have a huge impact on the pair’s movement but US Dollar strength generated a clear break of 1.6460 support.



Technical Outlook

The downtrend is resumed and 1.6460 is clearly broken. This level will probably turn into resistance and will reject any bullish moves that may come close to it. The first major support is now located at 1.6250 (visible on a Daily chart) and the Relative Strength Index continues to move in oversold territory, a fact which favors moves to the north in the form of small retracements. The day’s direction will be heavily influenced by the American NFP release which will overshadow the technical side.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom doesn’t release major economic indicators today and all eyes will be turned towards the American employment report.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[atoq]

salam bro. kalau boleh kasi EUR/JPY punya analisis ek.