GDMFX - Weekly News

[GDMFX]

Forex Technical Analysis: A week filled with major economic indicators

EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week started without strong movement and a calm economic scene but as soon as better than expected Euro Zone Manufacturing data came out, the Euro strengthened substantially and the pair touched 1.3710 resistance once more.



Technical Outlook
Although the bullish trend line was previously broken to the down side, last week’s developments brought price back above it and pierced through 1.3710 resistance. However, on the Daily chart we can notice a pin bar (candle with long upper wick) which suggests rejection and a potential move lower. If 1.3710 holds, the next target may be 1.3550 support but a move above the mentioned resistance will open the door for a move towards 1.3830.

Fundamental Outlook
The first event of the week is scheduled Monday and it’s the German Ifo Business Climate which draws its importance for the large sample used: about 7,000 businesses are surveyed and asked to rate the current economic conditions and to offer a 6-month outlook. The US New Home Sales are released the same day, showing the number of houses sold during the previous month.

Tuesday the United States announce the Durable Goods Sales which represent purchases of goods with a life expectancy of at least three years. Later in the day the US Consumer Confidence indicator is released and is often regarded as a leading indicator of consumer spending.

The most important event of the week is release of the FOMC Statement and US Federal Funds rate decision scheduled Wednesday. The rate is not expected to change and probably the monetary stimulus issue will be the more important aspect which will most likely create huge volatility in the market.

Thursday Germany announces the Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation; the same day, the US releases the Gross Domestic Product which is an economy’s main performance measurement. The trading week finishes Friday with the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index and the German Retail Sales; both are considered high-impact indicators which have the ability to move the market strongly.


GBP/USD
The Pound made substantial advances last week and the pair traveled a respectable distance to the north, breaking 1.6600 resistance and printing a new high at 1.6668.



Technical Outlook
Although the bulls were in control for almost the entire week, taking the pair above 1.6600 resistance, during the last day of the previous week price dropped for almost 200 pips indicating that a reversal may be happening. The bullish trend line is not clearly broken but if this occurs, the pair’s medium term direction will be bearish and a move toward 1.6250 will be highly probable. Otherwise, 1.6750 is the next target for the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook
The main event of the week for the Pound is the release of UK’s Preliminary Gross Domestic Product which is scheduled Tuesday. As mentioned before, the Gross Domestic Product is an economy’s main gauge of performance and the Preliminary release tends to have the greatest impact on price action. Wednesday the UK Nationwide House Price Index is released and Thursday the value of Net Lending to Individuals comes out but both are considered medium-impact indicators and the effect on the pair varies from month to month. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

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Forex Technical Analysis: Interest Rates and Non Farm Payrolls guarantee an action-packed week

EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the bears scored an important victory and the pair dropped significantly on the back of the US bond purchase program tapering. Although Fed’s decision didn’t trigger an immediate response in the market, the effect was clearly seen during the next two days.



Technical Outlook
The uptrend line drawn from July last year was broken decisively and so was the support located at 1.3550. This puts the bears in control from a medium term perspective and opens the door for additional moves to the down side, making 1.3400 the first target of the week. Retracements higher may find good resistance at the recently broken level of 1.3550.

Fundamental Outlook
We have a full week ahead of us, with the first important economic indicator being released Monday in the form of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. Wednesday the ADP Non Farm Employment Change is released; this report is put together by a private company but it usually offers hints about the Government released report which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday is an important day as the ECB will announce the Interest Rate decision and President Mario Draghi will hold a Press Conference during which he will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about the reasons which determined the interest rate vote. The Press Conference usually creates more volatility than the rate decision itself so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

Friday the most anticipated report of the week is released: the US Non Farm Employment Change which is considered to be the most important gauge of the employment situation in the United States and almost always a huge market mover.


GBP/USD
The pair had another encounter with the resistance located at 1.6600 but this was soon followed by a drop which was mainly triggered by the US developments regarding the reduction of bond purchases.



Technical Outlook
Although the pair had a bearish week, the drop wasn’t as significant as the one seen on the EUR/USD and moves to the upside are very possible. However, we favor the short side for the week to come, taking into consideration the fact that price pierced through the uptrend line for the second time and 1.6600 resistance rejected price lower again. First major support is located at 1.6250 and resistance at 1.6600.

Fundamental Outlook
Three Purchasing Managers’ Indexes are released throughout the first three days of the week: Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI, each showing the opinions of purchasing managers about their respective sectors and each having the ability to strengthen the Pound if better than expected values are posted. The most important Pound-affecting event is the Bank of England Interest Rate decision and the Asset Purchase Facility value, both released Thursday. No change is anticipated for either of them but a surprise will trigger huge volatility. The US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

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Forex Technical Analysis: Bulls struggling to continue last week’s momentum

EUR/USD
Forex Technical Analysis: Last week the pair’s direction has been highly influenced by the Fundamental aspect: ECB President Mario Draghi made positive comments regarding signs of economic recovery, strengthening the Euro and the US Non Farm Payrolls posted a worse than anticipated value, weakening the greenback.



Technical Outlook
Price bounced higher after a touch of 1.3480 and moved into the strong resistance zone created by the confluence of 1.3650 and the down trend line drawn from last year’s high. This is a potential turning point which could bring sellers into the market and make 1.3480 the first target to the down side but US Dollar weakness generated by the Non Farm Payrolls report combined with Euro strength may generate an extended move into 1.3710 resistance. At the moment there are no clear signs of a reversal to the down side, just a strong resistance zone ahead.

Fundamental Outlook
The first important event comes Tuesday in the form of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report in Washington DC and is followed Wednesday By Mario Draghi’s speech at the European Monetary Institute Conference in Brussels. Both speeches can create strong moves, depending on the matters discussed and the attitude of the participants.

Thursday the US Retail Sales are released, showing the change in the volume of sales made at retail level compared to the previous month. Since retail sales represent about two thirds of the entire consumer spending, the indicator has a high impact on the pair. Friday the German Gross Domestic Product is announced; being an economy’s main performance gauge, it has the potential to affect the Euro strongly, pushing it higher if better values are shown and weakening it if the numbers don’t meet expectations. Later in the day the University of Michigan will announce the US Consumer Sentiment which is a leading indicator of consumer spending.


GBP/USD
Last week Bank of England kept both the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value unchanged and the main market mover was the US Non Farm Payrolls report which weakened the US Dollar and allowed the pair to move higher.



Technical Outlook
On a Daily chart we can notice an almost perfect bounce off the support level located at 1.6250 which confirms once again the strength of this level. The first important resistance is located at 1.6600 but we don’t anticipate price to travel such a long distance to the north; bullish moves are very probable during the week to come but we still consider the medium term direction is controlled by the bears and this makes another touch of support a high probability scenario.

Fundamental Outlook
The only Pound affecting event of the week is Wednesday’s release of the Bank of England Inflation Report which will be accompanied by a Press Conference held by Governor Mark Carney and other Monetary Policy Committee members. The Inflation Report contains the Bank’s expectations regarding inflation and economic growth for the next two years and will most likely strengthen the Pound if it contains a positive outlook. Of course, the US events mentioned earlier will have a direct impact on the pair’s direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

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Forex Technical Analysis: The US Dollar rebounds?

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Throughout last week the US Dollar declined against its counterpart as the released data showed a slowing of economic growth due to bad weather conditions which negatively affected business activity.



Technical Outlook

The pair finished last week right on 1.3710 resistance, a level which rejected rising prices several times in the past. Lower moves are very possible but the latest momentum is bullish, especially after the bounce off 1.3480 and the break of 1.3650. A move above 1.3710 would consolidate the control of the bulls and would make 1.3830 the next target, while a bounce lower will shift the balance of power only if 1.3650 is clearly broken to the downside.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday US Banks will be closed celebrating Presidents’ Day and no major European data is released so the first important event of the week occurs Tuesday in the form of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Wednesday the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released, showing the details of the latest Fed meeting regarding the interest rate and the reasons that influenced the members’ vote.

Thursday is an important day as the French and German Manufacturing PMIs are released and Fed Chairwoman Yellen testifies on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. This testimony was originally scheduled last week but was postponed due to weather conditions. The US Consumer Price Index which is the main inflation gauge is announced the same day.

Friday the US Existing Home Sales are released and the G20 Meetings start. The meetings will be attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the 20 member states and have the potential to generate strong, fast moves.


GBP/USD

The Pound climbed to 1.6754, the highest level since 2011, fueled by speculation that Bank of England will raise interest rates if the economic conditions keep improving. A positive Inflation Report strongly contributed to the Pound’s strength.



Technical Outlook

Although we considered the bulls to be in control and we expected moves higher, we didn’t anticipate that a move into the resistance located at 1.6750 would come before a retracement lower occurred. If this week the pair will complete a retracement, 1.6600 will most likely act as support while the upper target is 1.6880. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the 70 level even on a weekly chart and price traveled a huge distance with no retracement so we anticipate moves to the down side but the main direction is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index which is considered the main gauge of inflation comes out Tuesday but Wednesday will probably be the most important day of the week as the Bank of England will release the Minutes of their latest meeting. The Minutes contain a breakdown of the votes regarding the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility and important insights into the reasons which determined the members’ votes. At the same time the Claimant Count Change is released, showing the change in the number of unemployed people who ask for social help. The week finishes Friday with the release of the UK Retail Sales which account for the major part of consumer spending and are regarded as a strong market mover.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

More articles from the best forex broker.

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Forex Technical Analysis: Turmoil on the fundamental scene – Interest Rates and Employment situation

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: Throughout last week data was mixed for both European and American economies, a fact which generated a lot of back and forth movement. A clear move finally came during the week’s final trading day on the back of a higher than anticipated European CPI and a weaker US Gross Domestic Product.



Technical Outlook

The recent rally took the pair close to the most important resistance of the year so far: 1.3830. The month that just ended was controlled by the bulls almost completely but this doesn’t mean that a break of the mentioned resistance is mandatory. In the past, 1.3830 acted as a strong barrier in front of rising prices and another rejection is very possible. If this is the case, 1.3710 will be the first level of importance to the down side. The week ahead is full of high impact events which will most likely decide the pair’s next direction; the technical aspect will be overshadowed by these major events.

Fundamental Outlook

Monday’s main event will be Mario Draghi’s testimony in Brussels, before European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. As always, his public speeches are a source of volatility and sharp moves, depending on the president’s attitude and answers so we recommend caution if trading at the time. The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released the same day, offering an overview of the American manufacturing sector health.

The next important release of the week comes Wednesday in the form of the American Non Farm Payrolls, a report which is released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc., not by the US Government; usually this report offers hints about the government-released report which comes out 2 days later.

Thursday’s main event is the ECB Interest Rate decision which will be followed by the ECB Press Conference. No rate change is expected but the Conference is almost always a market mover; however, price direction cannot be anticipated and will depend almost entirely on Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers to journalists’ questions.

Friday the focus shifts towards the United States for the release of the Non Farm Employment Change report (also known as Non Farm Payrolls). This is the most important data regarding the jobs situation in the US and has the potential to be the week’s main market mover, especially if a surprising number is posted.


GBP/USD

Last week was mostly controlled by the bulls and the pair bounced off the support located at 1.6600, climbing to touch 1.6750. However, a worse than expected UK Gross Domestic Product was posted and the optimism which surrounds the Pound seems to fade away.



Technical Outlook

A major resistance sits in front of rising prices and although the bulls were in control last week, the rally lacks momentum. The Daily candles are small, with long wicks compared to the real body, a fact which suggests that indecision is present in the market. We anticipate a clear break of either 1.6750 resistance or 1.6600 support but the direction of this break will be highly affected by the week’s fundamental events.

Fundamental Outlook

The week opens Monday with the release of the British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), followed Tuesday by the Construction PMI and Wednesday by the Services PMI. All are leading indicators of economic health focused on their respective sectors and have the potential to strengthen the Pound if better numbers are posted.

Bank of England will announce their Interest Rate decision on Thursday, as well as the Asset Purchase Facility value. Although no change is anticipated for either of them, strong movement is likely to be generated. The important US events will have a direct impact on the pair as well.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

Forex News: Interest Rates are here again – a wild day ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: European data released yesterday was slightly better than anticipated while the US ADP Non Farm Payrolls showed a decrease of employment levels during the previous month. Despite the data released, the greenback didn’t manage to take the pair below 1.3710.



Technical Outlook

Two four-hour candles touched the support located at 1.3710 and both were rejected, closing with long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of a potential bounce higher, with the first target being 1.3770, followed by 1.3830. Price action may be irregular until the ECB Press Conference is over and throughout the day, the technical factors will be secondary to the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a critical day for the Euro as the ECB will announce their Interest Rate decision at 12:45 am GMT (no change anticipated from the current 0.25%). The rate announcement will be followed 45 minutes later by a Press Conference during which ECB President Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and will answer audience questions. This Q&A session is usually a reason for huge volatility and sharp reversals as traders try to interpret Draghi’s comments and answers. We recommend caution if trading at the time.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI posted a slightly better than estimated value, increasing demand for the currency while bad US employment data weakened the Dollar, allowing the pair to have a bullish trading session.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s rise confirmed 1.6650 as support after a successful bounce higher off this level and once again we are close to the resistance located at 1.6750. The Relative Strength Index is not showing an overbought condition of the market and yesterday’s candles are full, without wicks to either side, indicating bull strength. However, a break of resistance cannot be anticipated because of important fundamental events which will most likely influence the day’s price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England announces today at 12:00 pm GMT the Interest Rate and the Asset Purchase Facility value. No change is anticipated for either of them but nonetheless, volatility is likely to be present at the time of the release. The current Interest Rate is 0.50% and the Asset Purchase Facility is 375B and a surprise modification (or even hints of a future change) would generate huge moves.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: OVERSOLD CONDITION CALLS FOR BULLISH MOVEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex Technical Analysis: The pair just finished another week controlled by the bears on the back of Euro weakness generated by Mario Draghi’s renewed commitment to use additional stimulus measures if the risk of deflation persists. On the other hand, the US Dollar was negatively affected by the NFP release and some of the pair’s losses were erased Friday.



Technical Outlook

During the week the pair broke 1.2500 support but Friday we saw bullish action and the weekly candle now has a long wick which suggests indecision. The Relative Strength Index on a weekly chart is below the 30 level, indicating an oversold condition but it is still pointing downwards and the pair is in a strong downtrend so we expect further bearish action. If the pair will remain below 1.2500, the first potential support is located at 1.2360 followed by 1.2280.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no important economic releases Monday and the same is true for Tuesday when US Banks are closed, celebrating Veterans Day. Euro Zone’s Industrial Production numbers are released Wednesday and Thursday the main event will be the American Unemployment Claims but this is often overlooked by market participants because it is an indicator which is released every week.

Friday a more important indicator is released by the United States: the Retail Sales. The importance of this indicator comes from the fact that sales made at a retail level account for a hefty part of the entire economic activity and a higher value suggests a thriving economy. The same day the Euro Zone Gross Domestic Product is announced, showing the overall performance of the European economy.


GBP/USD

The British economy posted worse than expected numbers overall and the Pound weakened against the US Dollar for another week. Price rebounded higher during the last day of the week on the back of US Dollar weakness.



Technical Outlook

The pair is headed towards the support at 1.5750 and we expect a bounce higher once and if price gets there. The Relative Strength Index is just crossing the 30 level downwards on a weekly chart but it has been hovering close to this level for a long while so a touch of support combined with an oversold condition of the indicator will probably push the pair higher.

Fundamental Outlook

Wednesday is the busiest day for the Pound as the Claimant Count Change is announced and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report released the same day. This Report contains the Bank of England’s economic outlook and inflation forecast for the next 2 years and usually has a high market impact so caution is recommended. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement throughout the week.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

[GDMFX]

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: NON-FARM PAYROLLS – THE LAST MAJOR EMPLOYMENT DATA OF THE YEAR

EUR/USD

The US Dollar showed modest gains in the beginning of last week but the pair then climbed on the back of U.S. political turmoil. Overall price action was choppy and characterized by reversals on the lower time frames.





Technical Outlook

The pair is supported by a bullish trend line that will probably push price into the key resistance at 1.2000. On the other hand, if the bears manage to break this trend line, we will most likely see a drop into the 50 days Exponential Moving Average where the next direction will be decided. The pair’s behavior this week will be heavily influenced by the U.S. political scene and by the jobs data released later in the week.


Fundamental Outlook

The week starts off slow, without any major releases scheduled Monday, while Tuesday the only notable economic data will be the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called Services PMI), which is a survey that shows the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in the Services sector.


Wednesday action picks up and we take a first look at United States jobs situation, with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The report shows the estimated change in the number of employed people in the U.S., apart from the farming sector and government. A larger number of employed people indicates that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future and this in turn strengthens the currency.


Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference in Frankfurt at the Bank of International Settlements and the economic week will end Friday with the most important U.S. employment data: the Non-Farm Payrolls. This report shows changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming industry and has a very strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher numbers strengthen the currency because employment is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which in turn represents a hefty part of overall economic activity.


GBP/USD

Renewed optimism regarding Brexit negotiations took the pair above long term resistance (1.3450), reaching a weekly high at 1.3550. Some rejection was seen during the last day of the week but momentum is still on the buyers’ side.





Technical Outlook

The bias is bullish but the pair is capped by last week’s high at 1.3550 and the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought territory, warning that a deeper retracement south may follow. If early in the week the bears can break 1.3450, we may see a move back into the 1.3320 zone but on the other hand, if 1.3450 becomes support, we will probably see a move into 1.3600 area.


Fundamental Outlook

The week is rather slow for the Pound, with only a few notable releases. The Construction PMI and Services PMI will come out Monday and Tuesday respectively, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in their sector.


The last announcement of the week is the Manufacturing Production scheduled Friday. This indicator shows changes in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and has a positive impact on the Pound if it posts a higher than anticipated reading; the opposite is true for a lower reading. As always, the U.S. releases will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

[GDMFX]

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THREE INTEREST RATES – THREE REASONS FOR HUGE VOLATILITY


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the US Dollar that showed signs of recovery and took the pair into 1.1700 area. Most of the move was technical as the economic scene was slow and without market moving events.





Technical Outlook


After the break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, price remained below 1.1875 and descended below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Although last week closed below the 50 EMA, the last daily candle has a very long wick and a very small body, which is a sign of indecision, so the next direction is difficult to anticipate. For now the first support is located at 1.1700 and resistance sits at 1.1875; if price climbs above the 50 EMA, showing that the initial break was false, we expect a move into 1.1875.


Fundamental Outlook


The first notable releases of the week are scheduled Tuesday: the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (survey of about 300 German investors and analysts regarding economic conditions) and the U.S. Producer Price Index (shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services).


Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their interest rate, which is expected to increase from <1.25% to <1.50%. A Rate Statement will come out at the same time, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision and half an hour later, Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference, discussing the rate. Given that this is the final rate announcement of the year, we may see strong movement on the US Dollar.


Thursday it’s the ECB’s turn to announce the interest rate (no change expected) and soon after, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference during which he will answer unscripted questions from journalists. Also Thursday the U.S. Retail Sales will come out, so this will be another day with possibly high volatility. The week ends Friday without any notable releases.





GBP/USD

The Pound had a choppy week and was affected by Brexit talks that generated periods of irregular volatility and reversals on the lower time frames. The bias was bearish but the pair remained above support.





Technical Outlook


After bouncing at 1.3320, the pair climbed above 1.3450 only to move back below it again, showing choppy price action. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by any news regarding Brexit negotiations but the levels to watch remain 1.3320 as support and 1.3550 as resistance (for now 1.3450 doesn’t seem too important). A break of 1.3320 and the 50 EMA will open the door for a move into 1.3050 but this could take more than a week.


Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a busier week than usual, starting with the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.


Wednesday the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price that employers pay for labor. The indicator has inflationary implications because usually if businesses pay more for labor they tend to increase the price of their products. If the actual change surpasses expectations, this usually strengthens the Pound.


Thursday the British Retail Sales will come out and the Bank of England will announce the rate decision, which creates volatility even if no change occurs. As always, the U.S. releases will have a strong impact on the pair so caution is recommended.

[GDMFX]

WEEKLY ANALYSIS: PRICE ACTION BECOMES CHOPPIER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WINTER HOLIDAYS


EUR/USD

Weekly Analysis: Last week the Fed raised the interest rate from <1.25% to <1.50% as expected but Fed Chair Yellen was somewhat dovish during her press conference and this generated a jump higher on the back of US Dollar weakness. Most of the Euro gains were erased during the following days.





Technical Outlook

The pair ended last week very close to the opening price and couldn’t break free from the 50 days Exponential Moving Average, which is almost flat, indicating a lack of momentum on both sides. Currently, price action is capped by two trend lines and the break of one of them will probably decide the next direction but until that happens the pair will probably show ranging price action. Horizontal support sits at 1.1700 and resistance is located at 1.1875; for a breakout to happen price needs to clear these zones as well.


Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the week will be the Eurozone Final version of the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Monday. This is an important gauge of inflation but the Final version tends to have the lowest impact. Tuesday the German IFO Business Climate will show the opinions of about 7,000 businesses about a 6-month outlook for the German economy and on the US Dollar side the only notable release will be the Building Permits, which shows how many construction permits were issued during the previous month.


Thursday the U.S. Final Gross Domestic Product will be released, showing changes in the total value of services and goods generated by the economy and the week ends Friday with the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that shows changes in the value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Overall it’s a rather slow week, mostly due to the approaching of the Winter Holidays.

GBP/USD

Last week the pair bounced between support and resistance, a behavior mostly generated by the fundamentals: first the US Dollar weakened during the Fed meeting and then it was the Pound’s turn to go down after more Brexit concerns emerged.





Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.3450, the pair dropped into the confluence zone created by the support at 1.3320 and the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Momentum is on the sellers’ side but as long as the mentioned support zone is intact, the pair’s direction is uncertain. A break will likely trigger a stronger drop but the focus will remain on Brexit negotiations so the Pound will be prone to sudden moves.


Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow week ahead, with only a few notable releases. Wednesday BOE Governor Carney will speak before the Treasury Select Committee about the November Financial Stability Report. De pending on his attitude, the Pound may see increased volatility so caution is advised.


Thursday the Public Sector Net Borrowing comes out, showing the difference between spending and income for the Public Sector. A positive number shows deficit and a negative number shows surplus but the indicator is not a major market mover.


Friday the Current Account will be released, showing the value difference between imported and exported goods and the same day the Final version of the British GDP will come out. This is the main gauge of an economy’s performance but the Final version usually has a low impact on the currency.