WEEKLY ANALYSIS: THREE INTEREST RATES – THREE REASONS FOR HUGE VOLATILITY


EUR/USD


Weekly Analysis: Last week belonged to the US Dollar that showed signs of recovery and took the pair into 1.1700 area. Most of the move was technical as the economic scene was slow and without market moving events.





Technical Outlook


After the break of the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, price remained below 1.1875 and descended below the 50 days Exponential Moving Average. Although last week closed below the 50 EMA, the last daily candle has a very long wick and a very small body, which is a sign of indecision, so the next direction is difficult to anticipate. For now the first support is located at 1.1700 and resistance sits at 1.1875; if price climbs above the 50 EMA, showing that the initial break was false, we expect a move into 1.1875.


Fundamental Outlook


The first notable releases of the week are scheduled Tuesday: the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (survey of about 300 German investors and analysts regarding economic conditions) and the U.S. Producer Price Index (shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services).


Wednesday will be the most important day of the week for the US Dollar as the Fed will announce their interest rate, which is expected to increase from <1.25% to <1.50%. A Rate Statement will come out at the same time, outlining the reasons that determined the rate decision and half an hour later, Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference, discussing the rate. Given that this is the final rate announcement of the year, we may see strong movement on the US Dollar.


Thursday it’s the ECB’s turn to announce the interest rate (no change expected) and soon after, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference during which he will answer unscripted questions from journalists. Also Thursday the U.S. Retail Sales will come out, so this will be another day with possibly high volatility. The week ends Friday without any notable releases.





GBP/USD

The Pound had a choppy week and was affected by Brexit talks that generated periods of irregular volatility and reversals on the lower time frames. The bias was bearish but the pair remained above support.





Technical Outlook


After bouncing at 1.3320, the pair climbed above 1.3450 only to move back below it again, showing choppy price action. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by any news regarding Brexit negotiations but the levels to watch remain 1.3320 as support and 1.3550 as resistance (for now 1.3450 doesn’t seem too important). A break of 1.3320 and the 50 EMA will open the door for a move into 1.3050 but this could take more than a week.


Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a busier week than usual, starting with the Consumer Price Index, scheduled Tuesday. This is the main gauge of inflation and shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.


Wednesday the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price that employers pay for labor. The indicator has inflationary implications because usually if businesses pay more for labor they tend to increase the price of their products. If the actual change surpasses expectations, this usually strengthens the Pound.


Thursday the British Retail Sales will come out and the Bank of England will announce the rate decision, which creates volatility even if no change occurs. As always, the U.S. releases will have a strong impact on the pair so caution is recommended.